Is Tinubu plotting a one-party state in Nigeria?

Nigeria's President, Bola Tinubu

Claim: President Bola Tinubu is orchestrating a systematic plan to weaken opposition parties and entrench a one-party state in Nigeria.

Over the past few months, Nigeria has witnessed a surge in defections from major opposition parties, particularly the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party and politicians from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The most dramatic of these was in Delta State, where Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, his predecessor and former vice-presidential candidate Ifeanyi Okowa, cabinet members, and other key PDP figures crossed over to the APC. The event was described by some as a political “tsunami.”

Similar movements are unfolding elsewhere. Akwa Ibom State Governor Umo Eno, though still a member of the PDP, has publicly expressed support for President Tinubu, deepening concerns that opposition parties may be rapidly losing their foothold.

This trend has triggered alarm among several civil society actors, political observers, and former government officials, who fear that Nigeria’s multi-party democracy is being undermined.

Notably, 17 prominent Nigerians, among them human rights advocate Chidi Odinkalu, legal activist Richard Akinnola, and former presidential adviser Babafemi Ojudu, issued a joint statement on April 25, 2025, titled ‘Defending Democracy: A Call to Resist the March Toward a One-Party State in Nigeria.’

In the statement, the group alleged that the Tinubu administration is “witnessing a calculated and systematic effort” to create a one-party state. They accused the government of deploying bribery, blackmail, and coercion to induce mass defections from opposition parties, and warned that “a democracy without opposition is not a democracy.”

What evidence supports the claim?

Although the fears are not unfounded given Nigeria’s political history, the current wave of defections lacks hard evidence of coercion or systemic abuse. The claimants have not presented documents, recordings, or testimonies that substantiate allegations of bribery or blackmail originating directly from the presidency or federal authorities.

Critics, however, point to patterns of selective law enforcement. Several opposition politicians, particularly former governors and party executives, have faced increased scrutiny from anti-graft agencies like the EFCC and ICPC. While such scrutiny may be legitimate in some cases, the timing of investigations, followed by sudden defections and an end to probes, raise suspicions of politically-motivated pressure.

Former Delta State Governor Okowa, now with the APC, was questioned by the EFCC in November 2024 over an alleged N1.3 trillion 13% derivation fund disbursement from the Federation Account between 2015 and 2023. His defection has fueled speculation that joining the ruling party may offer political insulation.

However, Okowa has publicly denied that he defected to avoid prosecution. “I did well for the people of the state,” he said.

“Petitions can be written by anybody, but whatever petitions are written, the right of investigation is with the EFCC. So, there are no fears concerning that at all.”

Some opposition leaders argue that political pressure, whether via investigations or withheld federal support, is being used as a strategic tool to dismantle party structures.

Dele Momodu, a PDP stalwart, bluntly described the current climate as one of fear and opportunism.

“What will surprise me is if President Bola Ahmed Tinubu believes that people are joining APC because they love him or because he’s doing so fantastically well,” Momodu said.

“What people are doing now is a game of survival. This government’s strategy is a carrot and stick. If we can’t persuade you, we can force you and I think force is working for now.”

Deliberate move to weaken opposition- Analysts

Political analysts say even though the ruling party will not admit that there was a planned and deliberate move to weaken opposition ahead of the 2027 general election, such a plot was real.

The analysts noted that there was no doubt that the wave of defection of leading opposition politicians to the APC has further strengthened the party at the centre, making it increasingly easy for incumbent President Bola Tinubu to win the 2027 presidential election.

According to them, the growing unpopularity of the President in Northern Nigeria has made the ruling party more desperate to win more opposition states and politicians, especially in Southern Nigeria to enhance his electoral success in 2027.

“The APC is desperate and you can see more PDP governors and opposition politicians moving to APC with force, it means the dominance of the ruling party may expand across opposition their stronghold states in 2027, Laolu Sunday, political analyst, said.

“So, it is true, we all know some people are working with the APC to weaken the smaller parties.”

However, many stakeholders say it is unlikely any plan to make Nigeria a one-party state would succeed, but admitted that the opposition parties would be weakened in 2027 with the wave of defections.

They further stated that moves by opposition politicians to form a coalition and present a common front against the ruling party, perhaps could be the only obstacle that could scuttle any plan to foist a one-party state.

Presidency responds: No plot, no threat

The presidency has firmly rejected accusations of a one-party state agenda. In a statement, Bayo Onanuga, special adviser to the president on information and strategy, described the claims as “false,” “baseless,” and the product of “disgruntled opposition figures” and “emergency defenders of democracy.”

“Democracy is not under any threat in Nigeria,” Onanuga said. “Freedom of association, freedom of speech and freedom of choice are part of the cherished ideals of democracy.”

He added: “The opposition cannot blame President Tinubu and the governing APC for their poor organisation, indiscipline, and gross incompetence in managing their affairs. It is certainly not part of President Tinubu’s job to organise or strengthen opposition parties.”

He also pointed to the silence of critics when former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai left the APC to build an opposition coalition: “It is hypocrisy writ large… when their wish does not materialise, they cry wolf.”

Onanuga insisted that defections were normal in democratic systems and that people were joining APC of their own free will, “based on the belief that the reforms being executed are in the interest of Nigerians and the unborn generation.”

Historical context

Party switching is not a new phenomenon in Nigerian politics. In the lead-up to the 2015 general elections, several PDP governors and lawmakers defected to the APC, helping the party defeat then-President Goodluck Jonathan. A similar wave was witnessed ahead of the 2019 polls. These moves often reflect political calculations rather than ideological alignment.

Even in mature democracies, party defections happen when politicians sense shifts in public sentiment or seek to secure re-election prospects.

While the growing wave of defections from opposition parties to the ruling APC raises concerns about the health of Nigeria’s multiparty democracy, the evidence for a deliberate, centrally coordinated plan by the Tinubu administration to establish a one-party state remains inconclusive.

The claims of coercion and misuse of state institutions are serious, but without concrete evidence, they remain allegations. That said, the optics of selective law enforcement and mass defections merit scrutiny.

To protect democracy, it is essential that Nigeria’s institutions, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the judiciary, the anti-corruption agencies, and the media, maintain independence and uphold the rule of law. Civil society must also continue to monitor power dynamics and call out democratic backsliding.

For now, Nigeria’s multi-party system remains intact, but the pressure on opposition forces is undeniable, and the direction of the political landscape in the lead-up to 2027 will be a test of how resilient Nigerian democracy truly is.