‘Despite capacity of 13,625MW, only 3,781 MW of electricity get to consumers’

Nigeria’s Power Paradox – Capacity vs. Delivery

Nigeria’s electricity sector faces a striking paradox: despite an installed generation capacity of 13,625 megawatts (MW), only about 3,781 MW of electricity actually reaches consumers.

This gap highlights systemic inefficiencies in generation, transmission, and distribution that continue to undermine the nation’s energy security. 

Nigeria’s 28 grid-connected power plants collectively have the technical capacity to generate 13,625 MW of electricity. However, according to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), the average actual generation hovers around 5,395 MW per hour.

Even this modest output does not fully reach homes and industries. Transmission bottlenecks, distribution inefficiencies, and technical losses reduce the delivered electricity to just 3,781 MW. 

This shortfall is particularly alarming when set against Nigeria’s energy needs. With a population exceeding 200 million and a rapidly growing economy, experts estimate that the country requires more than 30,000 MW to achieve reliable supply.

The current delivery of less than 4,000 MW represents barely 12 percent of the installed capacity and only a fraction of national demand. 

The reasons for this disparity are multifaceted.

First, many generation plants operate below capacity due to gas supply constraints, equipment failures, and maintenance issues.

Second, the transmission infrastructure is weak and outdated, unable to evacuate the full load generated. Voltage fluctuations, frequency deviations, and grid instability further limit effective transmission.

Third, distribution companies (DisCos) struggle with poor metering, energy theft, and financial insolvency, which erodes their ability to deliver power efficiently to end-users. 

The consequences of this inefficiency are profound. Businesses face high operating costs as they rely on diesel generators, households endure frequent blackouts, and the overall economy suffers from reduced productivity.

The idle capacity, over 8,000 MW that never reaches consumers, represents wasted investment and lost opportunity for growth. 

Government officials and regulators acknowledge the crisis.

The Minister of Power has emphasized that reforms must target transmission and distribution networks, not just generation.

Without addressing these systemic weaknesses, Nigeria’s installed capacity will remain a hollow statistic, disconnected from the lived reality of millions of citizens. 

Nigeria’s electricity sector illustrates a classic case of infrastructure underutilization.

While the country boasts significant installed generation capacity, inefficiencies across the value chain mean that only a fraction of this potential benefits consumers.

Bridging the gap between capacity and delivery will require urgent investment in transmission lines, modernization of distribution systems, and stronger regulatory enforcement.

Until then, the paradox of “13,625 MW capacity but only 3,781 MW delivered” will continue to define Nigeria’s energy landscape.