Planned Expansion Of Dangote Refinery Can Be Completed Within Three Years, Says MD

Planned expansion of Dangote refinery can be completed within three years, says MD

Executive summary

Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s Managing Director, David Bird, says the company will expand processing capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day within three years, leveraging a “ruthless replication” strategy that avoids redesign and enables immediate procurement and construction. He cites extensive pre-investment and site readiness as key enablers for the accelerated timeline, with long‑lead equipment orders and early construction commencing in early 2026.

Context and scope of the expansion

The expansion—first announced by Aliko Dangote in October, aims to scale what is already Africa’s largest single‑train refinery to 1.4 million barrels per day. If delivered on schedule, the project would place the complex among the largest globally, with significant implications for Nigeria’s energy security, foreign exchange earnings, and the downstream sector.

Strategy: “Ruthless replication” and design continuity

Bird emphasized that the expansion will not require redesign or re‑engineering, allowing the team to move directly into procurement and construction. This approach is intended to compress timelines by replicating proven plant configurations and ordering long‑lead items without delay. The company’s confidence rests on the continuity of design and the ability to bypass typical engineering cycles.

Timeline and near‑term milestones

Two parallel tracks will define the immediate phase: procurement of long‑lead equipment, targeted for substantial completion in the first months of 2026, and early construction activities such as piling and site preparation, scheduled to begin before the end of January. Bird expects foundation works to proceed this year and “steel coming out of the ground” by year‑end, reinforcing the three‑year delivery window.

Enablers: Pre‑investment and site readiness

The accelerated schedule is underpinned by extensive preparatory work already completed at the Lekki site, including land reclamation and elevation by about one to one‑and‑a‑half metres. Bird credited this foresight, driven by Dangote’s original vision, with removing typical bottlenecks in large industrial projects, enabling immediate transition to piling and foundations while procurement runs in parallel.

Economic and sectoral implications

Upon completion, the expanded capacity is expected to strengthen Nigeria’s domestic refining capability, reduce reliance on imported petroleum products, and position the country as a significant exporter of refined fuels. The scale of the project could reshape downstream market dynamics, bolster foreign exchange inflows, and enhance energy security through consistent local supply.

Risks and execution considerations

While the plan leans on design replication and site readiness to mitigate schedule risk, execution will still depend on timely delivery of long‑lead equipment, stable construction logistics, and coordinated regulatory and supply chain support. The aggressive timeline presumes minimal disruption across procurement, civil works, and integration with existing operations, areas that typically challenge megaprojects, even with strong pre‑investment foundations.

Outlook

Bird reaffirmed the company’s belief that the expansion can be brought online within three years, with visible construction progress expected by the end of the first year. If achieved, the project would mark a step‑change in Nigeria’s refining landscape and elevate the Dangote complex into the top tier of global refining capacity, aligning operational execution with strategic national outcomes.