POLITICS: Lessons from Past Opposition Coalitions

Editorial Comparison: Lessons from Past Opposition Coalitions

The 2015 APC Coalition

The All Progressives Congress (APC) emerged as a formidable force in 2015 by uniting disparate opposition parties under a single banner. The merger of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and a faction of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), alongside elements of the PDP, created a broad-based coalition. This unity was instrumental in defeating the incumbent PDP, demonstrating that opposition strength lies in compromise and collective ambition. The lesson here is clear: when rival leaders set aside personal ambitions, they can channel their energies into a shared victory.

The 1999 PDP Consolidation

In contrast, the PDP’s dominance in 1999 was not born of a coalition but of consolidation. The party absorbed various political movements and personalities into a single umbrella, presenting a united front at the dawn of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. This strategy worked because it minimized internal fractures and projected stability. The PDP’s success underscores the importance of cohesion and the dangers of factionalism, a warning relevant to today’s ADC.

The 2011 Opposition Fragmentation

The 2011 elections highlighted the perils of disunity. Opposition parties failed to merge effectively, leading to a fragmented vote that allowed the PDP to retain power. Despite widespread dissatisfaction with the ruling party, the lack of a coherent coalition meant that opposition strength was diluted. This episode illustrates how ambition unchecked by compromise can doom even popular movements.

Implications for the ADC

The ADC now finds itself at a crossroads similar to these historical moments. With figures like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi vying for influence, the party risks repeating the mistakes of 2011 if it cannot harmonize ambitions. Umar Ardo’s assertion that Obi’s candidacy depends on Atiku stepping down reflects the tension between unity and rivalry. If the ADC can emulate the APC’s 2015 model by forging a genuine coalition, it could mount a credible challenge to the APC in 2027. If not, it may succumb to the same fate as fragmented opposition movements of the past.

Conclusion

History offers both inspiration and caution. The ADC’s success will depend on whether its leaders can prioritize collective strength over personal ambition. The stakes are high, and the lessons of Nigeria’s political past provide a roadmap: unity breeds victory, while division ensures defeat.